#PBA2015 MATCH PREVIEW: AIMING TO CONTEND – BGY. GINEBRA KINGS vs MERALCO BOLTS

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Both Ginebra and Meralco finished with 6 wins and 5 losses in the Philippine Cup. Both were also ousted in the second phase of the Quarterfinals — Meralco lost to Alaska, while Ginebra got the boot from TNT.

Ginebra, despite its imposing size and deep roster, hasn’t really been able to meet its potential. It’s the only SMC team so far to NOT have won a title since the PBA reverted to its three-conference format. Needless to say, the Kings are hungry as hell, but the recent coaching change further muddles this team’s identity.

Meralco, for its part, had some shining moments in the Philippine Cup, but they also absorbed some of the worst losses — lost to Alaska by 41 and lost to ROS by 28. They beat all the teams they needed to beat — Kia, Blackwater, GlobalPort, and Barako Bull — but they couldn’t really beat any of the big name teams with the exception of… Ginebra. For the Bolts to really make the jump to the next level, they need to start beating the top teams.

Here are some key personnel and things to watch out for in this game:

1. GREGZILLA

Greg Slaughter was really good in his rookie year, and he has improved marginally in his sophomore season. He’s norming a little more points and grabbing two more rebounds per game, but his shooting has gone down a bit and so has his blocks. Still, it can be argued that, outside of June Mar Fajardo, Slaughter is the country’s best center, and the Gin Kings definitely don’t have anybody better than Slaughter around which they can build a winner.

Philippine Cup stats: 14.7ppg, 12.1rpg, 0.9bpg.

2. JAPETH LIKE IT’S HOT

Greg’s frontline partner, Japeth Aguilar, meanwhile, has really put up better numbers compared to his first season with Ginebra. Aguilar’s scoring, rebounding, and shooting numbers have increased as he has looked more aggressive on both ends of the floor. In fact, based on the numbers, he is playing the best season of his career so far. If the 28-year old big man can continue improving his game, he could become the perfect complement to Slaughter. Heck, if both these young guys improve, they could be Ginebra’s version of SMB’s Fajardo-Arwind combo.

Philippine Cup stats: 14.5ppg, 9.8rpg, 1.9bpg, 55.0 FG%.

3. 45 CALIBER 

Maybe the biggest X-factor for Ginebra, however, will be the play of swingman Mac Baracael. The former FEU standout is playing maybe the best basketball of his career this season, averaging career-highs in scoring, assists, and threes made per game. With import Michael Dunigan crowding the paint this conference, the onus will be on Baracael to spread the floor and keep defenses honest. If #45 can continue torching opposing teams from beyond the arc and provide a spar from the perimeter, then Ginebra might just be able to get over the hump.

Philippine Cup stats: 9.6ppg, 3.2rpg, 1.7apg, 1.8 triples per game, 33.8 3pt%.

4. IMPORT WATCH: MICHAEL DUNIGAN

Former air 21 Express import Michael Dunigan was once considered a possible candidate for naturalization for Gilas Pilipinas. He was, after all, very productive in his first stint in the PBA. He was so successful that he was a sought-after import in the Korean Basketball League, where he played for two teams — the Wonju Dongbu Promy and the Seoul Samsung Thunders. His numbers in Korea, however, weren’t very stellar, so he didn’t make a return trip this season. Still, his energy, motor, and rebounding prowess should prove to be good additions to the Gin Kings, whose toughness is more of a weakness than a strength.

Stats with Air 21 (2012-2013 season – 15 games): 23.9ppg, 15.4rpg, 3.3apg, 2.4bpg, 48.8 FG%.

Stats in the KBL (2013-2014 – 46 games): 10.7ppg, 7.4rpg, 1.1apg, 1.0bpg, 50.1 FG%.

Stats in NBA D League (Canton Charge – 23 games): 11.9ppg, 7.4rpg, 1.0apg, 1.4bpg, 57.8 FG%.

5. IMPORT WATCH: JOSH DAVIS

On the other end, Dunigan will square off against former San Diego State star forward Josh Davis. Davis spent most of 2014 and early 2015 with the Austin Spurs of the NBA D-League, putting up double-double numbers. The 6’8 banger is not known to be a super scorer, but he rebounds and defends with the best of them. The 24-year old has never played outside of the US, though, so it will be very interesting to see how well he adjusts to international play and, more specifically, the Pinoy brand of basketball. He scores mainly facing the basket and utilizes his athleticism well, though, so he should be very entertaining to watch. Meralco needs an outright center, though, and Davis is more a natural power forward.

Stats with Austin Spurs (NBA D-League – 22 games): 13.8ppg, 10.6rpg, 2.2apg, 1.5spg, 1.1bpg, 51.5 FG%.

6. CLIFF JUMPER

Complementing Davis up front is athletic combo forward Cliff Hodge. Hodge has tried to add a 3-point shooting dimension to his game, but it has met limited success so far. Still, combined with his tenacity in attacking the basket and grabbing the boards, a proper midrange to long range game can do wonders for Hodge and the Bolts. With Davis anchoring the middle, Hodge should have a bit more room to make cuts and be free for easy buckets. He’s shooting a career-best 47% from the field, too, so if he can string together a few great games, Meralco can be a legit threat.

Philippine Cup stats: 12.6ppg, 9.6rpg, 2.2apg, 1.1spg, 1.2bpg.

7. DARING DILLINGER

Dillinger is one of the go-to-guys for Meralco, but he was pretty inconsistent in the previous conference. He is still an all-around threat for the Bolts, but he will really need to impose his will a bit more if he wants to make the jump from above-average cager to bona fide superstar. He has the size and natural gifts to make it happen, though, so Meralco fans are definitely crossing their fingers. One big dip in his game, however, has been his three-point shooting. From 34.8% in the previous season, Dillinger’s rate has dropped t just 21.0% in the Philippine Cup. He will probably get a lot more looks from the perimeter now that Davis is in the team, so he should make more threes.

Philippine Cup stats: 11.1ppg, 4.0rpg, 1.5apg, 21.0 3pt%, 46.5 FG%.

8. EL GRANADA: OVER THE HILL?

Gary David, for all his awesomeness, will turn 37 this year, and one just needs to beg the question of whether he is already over the hill or not. His production has dropped off since 2012, though, so I’m leaning towards thinking he is over-the-hill. Even his outside shooting hasn’t been as sharp, as he made just one trey per game in the previous conference. Just like Dillinger, David will get a lot more looks from beyond the arc in the Commish Cup, and he needs more splashes than bricks to help Meralco become a contender.

Stats in the Philippine Cup: 10.8ppg, 2.9rpg, 1.5apg, 1.0 triple per game.

9. ANOTHER COACHING CHANGE

Whereas Meralco needs to be much sharper in the second conference, Ginebra will once again grapple with renewed identity after letting go of Jeff Cariaso (and his triangle offense) and reinstating former head coach Ato Agustin. Agustin last led Ginebra to a conference semifinals way back in the 2014 Philippine Cup, so die-hard fans are hoping he can bring back that old magic. The big question, however, is whether Ginebra’s fans, players, and management are all patient enough. No team can flip a switch and change its fortunes overnight, and yet another coaching change can actually make things more difficult for the already-pressure-burdened Ginebra quintet.

Ato Agustin: 21 wins and 22 losses (48.8% win rate). Best finish: 2014 Philippine Cup Semis

Jeff Cariaso: 12 wins and 11 losses (52.2% win rate). Best finish: 2015 Philippine Cup Quarterfinals Phase 2.

1. PREVIOUS MEETING: COMEBACK FALLS SHORT

In the previous and only meeting so far this season between these two teams, Ginebra had the faster start, but Meralco pounded the Kings in the middle two quarters and survived a furious Ginebra rally to prevail, 109-99. Ginebra cut the lead down to 4 points with two minutes left to play, but the Bolts hit the last 6 points of the game to preserve the win. Cliff Hodge did really well here, hitting all three of his three-point attempts on his way to 18 points, while snipers Gary David and Mark Macapagal combined for 6 treys. As a team, Meralco shot 47% from rainbow country to offset Ginebra’s 49-42 edge in rebounding. The Bolts were also better in transition, outscoring Ginebra, 14-7.

Last game against each other:

Rebounding: 49-42, +7 for GIN

Fastbreak PTS: 14-7, +7 for MER

FG%: GIN – 42.3%, MER – 50.0%

3pt shooting – GIN – 23.1%, MER – 47.4%

GIN Leaders

Greg Slaughter – 26pts, 13rebs, 4 turnovers

Japeth Aguilar – 18pts, 7rebs, 3 turnovers

Joseph Yeo – 15pts, 5asts, 3rebs, 2 triples

MER Leaders

Cliff Hodge – 18pts, 5rebs, 3 triples

Mark Macapagal – 18pts, 2asts, 2stls, 4 triples

Gary David – 16pts, 6rebs, 2 triples

Jared Dillinger – 15pts, 8rebs, 2stls, 1blk

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