#PBA2015 PHILIPPINE CUP FINALS PREVIEW: GIYERA SA SIKMURA

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Beer and Milk don’t mix, and we will see that in this Finals series as both San Miguel and Alaska will surely pull out all the stops to win. These are two of the winningest, most successful teams in the history of the PBA. Alaska has 13 titles in 27 Finals appearances while SMB has won 19 titles in 30 Finals appearances (these are according to each team’s Wiki pages).

However, despite the success in their history, this is the first Philippine Cup/All-Filipino Finals appearance for SMB since 2007 and first for Alaska since 2010. San Miguel last won the Philippine Cup in 2001, while Alaska last won it a year before in 2000. Clearly, both teams are hungry to win what is, arguably, the most-coveted title in the PBA.

Both teams have also been among the league’s leaders in this conference. Alaska had a strong start, winning its first six games, while SMB showed more sustained strong play, losing only 2 games so far in the entire conference.

Here are some interesting points to ponder before we plunge into Game 1 of the Finals:

The Beermen have been Dukes of Domination in their road to the Finals.

They won all but two games in the elims to secure an outright semis berth and proceeded to sweep the TNT Tropang Texters in their semis series. To date, the Beermen have been outscoring their foes by an average of 10 points per game. They are riding high on a 5-game winning streak entering the Finals.

Standings: 9-2 in elims and 4-0 sweep of TNT in the semis.

Key team stats:

#3 offense: 90.3ppg

#1 defense: 80.3 pts allowed per game

#1 in total FG%: 44.4%

#2 in 3pt%: 33.8%

#1 in FT%: 70.5%

On the other end, Alaska’s road to the Finals has been topsy-turvy.

The Aces have gone through an up and down ride on the way to the Finals. After starting the season 6-0, the Aces lost three of their last five elims games and lost an outright semis slot.They had to beat NLEX & Meralco to advance to the semis against second-seeded ROS. They were neck-and-neck with the Painters in the semis, tied 2-2 entering Game 5 before the Aces closed it out to win the series, 4-2.

The Aces don’t have a long winning streak heading into the Finals, but they’re the only ones that SMB hasn’t been able to beat yet this season, so they should have a bit of a psychological advantage.

Standings: 8-3 in elms and 6-2 so far in the Playoffs

Key team stats:

#2 defense: 81.3ppg

#2 rebounding: 51.4rpg

#2 2nd chance pts: 11.6 pts per game

#3 assists: 18.2apg

Can June Mar be stopped?

June Mar Fajardo has been pretty much unstoppable this season and, in particular, in the last series against TNT. His combination of great size, nimble footwork, and soft touch have made him the most unguardable player in the league. He is expected to continue his dominance, even against a team like Alaska, which boasts of Sonny Thoss and Samigue Eman. He has scored in double-figures in every game so far and has recorded 12 double-doubles in 15 games.

Stat comparison:

Fajardo elims: 18.6ppg, 12.7rpg, 1.5apg, 64.3 FT%

Fajardo semis: 21.0ppg, 11.8rpg, 3.3apg, 76.5 FT%

Returning playmaker Alex Cabagnot has been a perfect fit for SMB so far.

It seems he hasn’t missed a beat despite being shipped to GlobalPort last season. Since joining SMB, his numbers have dipped slightly, but his overall contributions to the team have seemingly made the Beermen much more formidable.

Cabagnot before returning to SMB: 15.3ppg, 7.4rpg, 5.0apg, 1.1spg, 38.5 3pt%, 37.1 FG% – 4 wins, 7 losses

Cabagnot after returning to SMB: 14.8ppg, 5.0rpg, 3.3apg, 0.3spg, 46.7 3pt%, 48.7 FG%, – 4 wins, 0 losses

Can Chris Lutz and Ronald Tubid step up anew?

Two key support players who stepped up big time for SMB in their series-clinching win over TNT – Chris Lutz & Ronald Tubid. Both guys did really well, combining for 26 points and 4 assists while shooting a combined 11/16 from the field to give SMB a huge lift from the wings.

Conference stats:

Chris Lutz: 10.7ppg, 4.0apg, 42.4 FG%

Ronald Tubid: 8.7ppg, 1.0apg, 44.3 FG%

Game 4 stats vs TNT:

Chris Lutz: 15pts, 2asts, 6/10 FGs

Ronald Tubid: 11pts, 2asts, 5/6 FGs

The Beast rises.

Meanwhile, Alaska has been propelled by the jaw-dropping play of The Beast, Calvin Abueva, who is making a good case to be this conference’s Best Player. What would clinch his winning the BPC? If he can continue playing really well in the Finals to give Alaska its first All-Filipino title since 2000.

He struggled scoring against SMB in their elms encounter, though, so it’ll be interesting to see how he response this time around.

Stats: 15.8ppg, 11.6rpg, 2.9apg, 1.1spg, 47.6 FG%

vs SMB: 5pts, 18rebs, 2asts, 1stl, 1blk, 2/12 FGs

The Hotshot with the BIG shots.

The Cebuano Hotshot Dondon Hontiveros came up with big clutch shots in Alaska’s last game, hitting 5 triples to rally the Aces past ROS and clinch their semis series, 4-2.

Hontiveros has been far from consistent so far this conference, but he seems to be heating up lately, especially in the last two games. If he can muster some more sweet shooting, then Alaska can really spring an upset of SMB.

Stats: 9.1ppg, 37.8 FG%, 37.4 3pt%, 2.1 triples per game

Last 2 games: 14.0ppg, 50.0 FG%, 53.3 3pt%, 4.0 triples per game

Alaska’s bigs will be under a lot of pressure.

The frontline of Alaska (Sonny Thoss, Vic Manuel, Eric Menk) need to toughen up against SMB’s vaunted frontcourt of June Mar Fajardo & Arwind Santos. Coach Alex Compton’s frontcourt will be under tremendous pressure to keep SMB’s bigs contained. It will be nearly impossible to stop Fajardo & Santos, but if Alaska can slow them down a bit, then the Aces have a fighting chance.

Stats:

Thoss: 8.6ppg, 5.8rpg, 42.5 FG%

Manuel: 10.5ppg, 6.2rpg, 45.5 FG%

Menk: 8.3ppg, 6.6rpg, 51.8 FG%

Last game vs SMB:

Combined stats: 17pts, 5rebs, 28.6 FG% (Eric Menk missed the game)

SMB X-FACTOR: ARWIND SANTOS

Santos has been really really good so far this season and needs to be very productive for SMB to sustain its momentum in the Finals. One criticism of Santos has always been about the perception that he fades in the big games, and he can quash that perception if he can be a strong presence in these Finals against Alaska.

Stats: 15.6ppg, 7.8rpg, 1.9apg, 1.3bpg, 1.9 triples per game, 38.2 3pt%, 45.6 FG%

Vs Alaska: 14pts, 9rebs, 2stls, 4blks, 1/6 3pt shooting, 5/15 FGs

ALASKA X-FACTOR: JV CASIO

Casio’s play at PG will be critical in Alaska trying to challenge SMB. Casio seems to have hit a slump this season after putting up career numbers last season. If he can muster something special, though, then he should cancel out the production of Cabagnot and increase the Aces’ chances of upsetting the top-seeded and heavily favored Beermen.

Stats last season: 12.6ppg, 3.5rpg, 3.0apg, 2.3 triples per game

Stats this season: 9.6ppg, 3.0rpg, 3.3apg, 1.5 triples per game

Alaska beat SMB in their only game so far this season.

In their only encounter so far this season, the Beermen and the Aces fought in a really tight contest. SMB seemed to have control at the half, but the Aces were much better in the second half, outscoring the Beermen in both the third and fourth periods.

SMB was limited to its lowest scoring output of the season so far (so was Alaska). In this battle of attrition, both teams combined to shoot just 28.8% from the field. SMB’s frontline was limited to only 9/25 combined shooting.

Cyrus Baguio led Alaska in scoring with 13 pts, while Casio had 11, but they shot just 6/17 from the field.

The big difference was Alaska’s aggressiveness, which gave them 37 total free throw attempts and they made 25. On the other end, SMB had only 23 FT attempts, making 16.

In all, I’m rooting for the underdogs to take this, but if we’re being honest, then the Beermen should finish this series in six games.

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