#PBA2015: What’s Biting the Beermen?

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As of this writing, the San Miguel Beermen, the 2015 Philippine Cup Champions, are at the very bottom of the PBA Commish Cup standings. Yes, worse than expansion clubs Blackwater and Kia, both of which have beaten SMB this conference.

If this were any other team, that would be disappointing enough, but because this is San Miguel Beer, one of the most storied franchises in league history and, arguably, the deepest team in the country, starting a conference 0-3 is just flat out unacceptable.

Naturally, this begs one question: what the hell is wrong with the Beermen?

After watching them drop the ball in their first three assignments, here are some kinks worth pointing out:

Ronald Roberts is not a bad import, just a bad fit.

One might be tempted to put all the blame on import Ronald Roberts, but that would be overly simplistic and absent of any analytical depth. When it comes to Roberts, here are some things to keep in mind (stats are accurate up to February 14, 2015):

Scoring: 22.7 per game (4th among all imports)

FG Shooting: 48.2% (5th among all imports)

3pt Shooting: 50.0% (tops among all imports)

Rebounding: 17.7 per game (4th among all imports); he is also tops in offensive rebounding with 8.0 a game

Rim Protection: 3.0 blocks per game (3rd among all imports)

Turnovers: 2.7 a game (middle of the pack among all imports)

What do these numbers mean? Simple. Roberts doesn’t suck. In fact, he’s among the better imports out there right now.

So why are there rumors that former imports AZ Reid and Denzel Bowles are possibly flying in to replace Roberts?

Simple. Though Roberts isn’t a bad reinforcement, his skill-set just doesn’t complement the depth and strengths already existing among San Miguel’s local players. SMB already has, arguably, the best frontline in the league, and when the team adds another big guy in the mix who needs the basketball to be effective, that tends to mess things up. For a deeper explanation, take a look at the next reason on this list.

This is the Arwind Santos we love to hate.

Arwind Santos is supposed to be playing better than this. In the Beermen’s huge title romp in the previous conference, Santos was awesome. He played like he was the best player in the country (maybe he is). He was so good that whispers of his return to the national team turned into a clamor. Even Tab Baldwin took notice.

Right now, however, it seems he has regressed into the Arwind Santos that was the object of all those jokes and memes from the past few years. Take a look at the HUGE dip in his numbers:

Phil. Cup stats: 16.5ppg, 8.4rpg, 2.0apg, 1.7bpg, 50/141 3pt shooting (35.5%), 44.9 FG%, 36.3mpg

Comm. Cup stats: 10.3ppg, 5.7rpg, 0.3apg, 1.3bpg, 1/20 3pt shooting (5.0%), 25.9 FG%, 29.7mpg

The drop-off in Santos’s stats is tremendous, and that can be attributed, in a big way, to the fact that Roberts’s presence makes Santos a little redundant. The irony is that Santos is taking more shots this conference than he was in the Philippine Cup — he’s taking a mean of around 18 FG attempts now compared to just around 14 per game in the previous conference. It’s a puzzling scenario, but what’s clear is that SMB needs the Finals MVP version of Santos if it wants to make any sort of good splash moving forward.

A blind man would be ashamed of the Beermen’s shooting.

How’s this as another puzzling stat – San Miguel is the WORST shooting team in the PBA right now. Yes, despite having the league’s best froncourt duo, maybe one of the most versatile wingmen pairings (Hello, Lutzssiter), and veteran playmaker Alex Cabagnot, this team just cannot seem to find the basket with consistency. They are dead last among all twelve teams in terms of FG shooting (34.7%) and 3pt shooting (17.1%), and they are ninth in FT accuracy (66.7%). These are numbers we usually see on alumni or inter-color leagues, not in the highest level of basketball in the country.

Now, aside from Santos, who else is putting up bricks and shooting like he drank San Miguel before the game?

June Mar Fajardo, the country’s best center and reigning MVP, is finding the hole just 38% of the time. For a center, THE CENTER, that’s as atrocious as it can get.

Marcio Lassiter continues to suck, making just 28% of his FG attempts, including only 25% of his threes.

Shock trooper Ronald Tubid has been awful, too, connecting on just 38% of his FGs (down from 43% last conference).

By far, however, the biggest brick-builder is the next reason on this list.

Alex Cabagnot is getting played.

When he started this season, Alex Cabagnot was a house on fire, leading the GlobalPort Batang Pier in scoring, assists, and even occasionally being the team’s best rebounder. After his return to the Beermen, it was expected that his numbers would dip, and they did, but, hell, nobody would’ve thought it would be THIS BAD.

Phil. Cup stats: 13.3ppg, 5.3rpg, 4.5apg, 42/117 3pt shooting (35.9%), 39.5 FG%, 31.7mpg

Comm. Cup stats: 5.0ppg, 3.7rpg, 6.0apg, 1/15 3pt shooting (6.7%), 17.2 FG%, 28.0mpg

Sure, he helped SMB clinch its first All-Filipino title in more than ten years, and, sure, he leads the league in assists right now (more on this later). That’s all good, BUT when you’re best PG is shooting UNDER 7% from beyond the arc and attempting 3 triples a game, and when his overall shooting rate is a barf-worthy 17%? Heck, SMB may as well just get Sol Mercado back (Now that’s an idea!). Strangely enough, the fact that Cabaggie leads the league in assists is misleading because, well, look at the final reason on this list.

Feel free to share the effin’ basketball.

Despite the fact starting PG Alex Cabagnot leads the league in assists, and despite the fact he plays alongside the uber-unselfish Chris Ross, the San Miguel Beermen are next-to-last in terms of assists per game. On average, these guys make 30 shots per contest, but they assist on just 13 of those baskets. Translation? It’s reasonable to think that most of the buckets the Beermen make are off one-on-ones or broken plays. In fact, outside of Cabagnot, there is nobody on this team who averages 2 or more assists. Guys like Lutz and Ross, both of whom are great at making plays for their teammates, have to get involved a bit more, or, plainly speaking, the Beermen just have to make buckets when they’re found in their sweet spots.

Things won’t get any easier now. As things stand, SMB has already played the two weakest teams (Kia and Blackwater) and the most schizophrenic squad in the whole tournament (Wazzup, Ginebra?). The assignments will get tougher, and the stakes will be higher. By all indications, unless these guys have a breakout game or string a few morale-boosting wins, they may not even make the next round (shudder!).

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