#PBA2015 GOVS CUP PREVIEW: KIA CARNIVAL vs MERALCO BOLTS – BREAKTHROUGH OR BREAKDOWN?

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MER is already assured of a quarterfinal spot due to its current record and its superior quotient, but, of course, the Bolts would love to head into the next round with momentum and confidence. On the other end, the Kia Carnival are on the verge of making their first quarterfinal appearance, but for them to actually complete this breakthrough they will have to first win against the Bolts, who have tormented them twice already this season (and hope that GIN loses its last game). If the Carnival lose here, though, it will be yet another disappointing breakdown for a team that has shown a lot of promise.

The Carnival started this conference strongly, winning three of their first four assignments mainly due to the hulking presence of Hamady N’Diaye and the versatility of their other players. They have, however, lost all but one of their games since then and are groping for form. They fell behind early in their last game against TNT and weren’t able to recover, which is something they cannot afford to do in this game. They have to start strong and put pressure on the deeper Bolts, else they will fall by the wayside and find their season come to an end.

MER undoubtedly has one of the conference’s most impressive imports in Emmett, but their locals have been quite inconsistent, which is why they’ve gone up-and-down so far. Still, this is a team that has won three of its last five games and was leading most of the way against ROS in their previous outing before collapsing in the end. If the Bolts can get an early lead on the Carnival and play tough enough to maintain it all throughout, they should come out the winners and, more importantly, be able to move to the quarterfinals with a lot of momentum.

Scenarios:
A) If MER defeats KIA: TNT advances to the playoffs. KIA and GIN are out.

1. B) If KIA defeats MER: TNT will be eliminated. KIA will achieve its first quarterfinals appearance as long as Ginebra loses as well.
2. C) If GIN defeats NLEX: GIN will only advance if KIA beats MER, but not by too much. If GIN wins, KIA can still advance if the Carnival win by a huge number of points against MER (not sure about the exact number). Bssically, GIN is in a must-win situation.

Previous results:
PHL Cup
MER beat KIA, 99-93

COMM Cup
MER beat KIA, 90-80

1. THE WONDER FROM WALDORF

Despite the losing, KIA has one bright spot among its group of local players — Karl Dehesa. The Fil-American graduate of Waldorf College has been nothing short of stellar in the past three games, averaging 19.3 points, 4.0 triples, and 2.3 assists per game.

vs TNT: 19pts, 3rebs, 4asts, 4 triples.
Last 3 games: 19.3ppg, 3.0rpg, 2.3apg, 4.0 triples per game, 44.4 3pt%, 46.5 FG%.

2. JET TAKES FLIGHT!

Jet Chang struggled a couple of games ago against ROS, scoring just 6 points on 2/9 FG shooting, but he bounced back and took flight again versus TNT, dropping 17 points and 7 rebounds. Chang has been a solid scoring option for KIA this conference, and they will surely need him to continue being effective if they are to stand a chance against MER in this game.

vs TNT: 17pts, 7rebs, 1 triple.
Stats: 14.0ppg, 4.1rpg, 1.3apg, 1.0spg, 1.0 triple per game.

3. JASON DEUTCHMAN: BIG MINUTES

One guy who stepped up big in KIA’s last game was big man Jason Deutchman. Deutchman came off the bench to score 8 points, grab 9 rebounds, and hit 2 treys for KIA. He has occasionally been a big spark for KIA’s second unit and if he can do that here against MER, the Carnival may just pull off an upset.

vs TNT: 8pts, 9rebs, 2asts, 1stl, 2 triples, 50.0 FG%.

4. BLOCK PARTY

N’Diaye is not a consistent big time scorer or a really dominant low post option, but he gives KIA a very imposing interior presence. Needless to say, KIA needs him to be solid inside against MER in this game, especially because the Bolts don’t have a lot of size.

vs TNT: 9pts, 13rebs, 3asts, 3blks, 48 FGs.
*Leads the league in blocks with more than 5 a game.

5. THE TEXAS TORNADO

Emmett, who is a native of Texas and an alum of Texas Tech, has been a super import for MER this conference. He’s had really only one “not so good” game this conference, but by and large he has been very effective and dangerous. If he can find his mark and be efficient on both ends of the floor, MER should have a big edge here.

vs ROS: 33pts, 13rebs, 6asts, 4stls, 41.9% FGs.

6. GET IT DONE, EL GRANADA!

David started the conference a little slow, scoring in double-figures in just one of his first five games, but he has built up a lot of momentum since, scoring 10 or more points in each of the last five outings. If he can get the job done in terms of scoring again here against KIA, the Bolts should be in a great position to win.

first 5 games: 8.6ppg, 0.8 triples per game, 1.6apg
last 5 games: 12.4ppg, 1.8 triples per game, 2.6apg

7. THE BEARDED ONE

Jared Dillinger, whose beard has been a fixture of his image, has missed a big chunk of the elims, but he has done well in MER’s last 2 outings, providing a lot of intensity on both ends of the floor. If the 6’5 Fil-Hawaiian can provide great production again here, the Bolts shouldn’t have much trouble. He will have his hands full against Chang, though.

Last 2 games: 12.0ppg, 5.0rpg, 2.0apg, 2.0 triples per game, 64.3% FGs.

8. KEY MATCH-UP: SEIYA ANDO X LA REVILLA

The key match-up here is between PGs Seiya Ando and LA Revilla.  Both are cat-quick guards who aren’t afraid of attacking the basket or hoisting the three. It’ll be interesting to see if they can cancel each other out here, or if one of them will rise up to outplay the other. Ando will probably stretch the KIA defense, while Revilla will force MER to tighten up and stop his penetration.

Ando stats: 10.4ppg, 2.6rpg, 2.1apg, 1.5spg, 1.1 triples per game, 42.1% FGs.
Revilla stats: 9.1ppg, 4.5rpg, 4.5apg, 1.5spg, 36.3 FG%

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