#PBA2015 PREVIEW: RAIN OR SHINE ELASTO-PAINTERS vs KIA CARNIVAL – FIGHTING TO STAY ALIVE

ROS and Kia are on opposite ends of the spectrum. With a 7-3 card, the Painters still have a shot at one of the twice-to-beat edges, but they have to win here against a dangerous Kia five to keep their chances of finishing among the top two alive. The Carnival, on the other hand, are fighting for their very own survival. They are tied for ninth in the standings and need to win here to keep their own hopes of making the quarterfinals alive. If they lose, they might as well kiss the quarters good bye.

Here are some things to watch in this game:

1. TIU-TORIZED

Former Ateneo Blue Eagle Chris Tiu has struggled so far this conference (this whole season, in fact). Against BLA, however, Tiu had a great game, putting up 10 points, 2 assists, and 2 triples in just 14 minutes off the bench. This is the second time he has scored in double-digits this conference, and if he can approximate that level of production consistently, ROS has a strong shot at going deep in the next round.

First 8 games: 3.4ppg, 1.3apg, 0.5 triples per game, 28.6 FG%

vs BLA: 10pts, 2asts, 2triples, 4/6 FGs.

2. BAD BOY BELGA

Beau Belga has recently hogged the headlines because of his tussle with Mark Caguioa in ROS’s game against Ginebra a few days ago. Belga was fined for his behavior, but he still relishes in the role of the “bad boy.” In spite of this, he has been quite productive in ROS’s last two games. If he can continue being efficient, and if he can keep his antics to himself, ROS should benefit greatly.

First 9 games: 5.8ppg, 3.6rpg, 2.8apg, 0.4bpg

vs BLA: 11pts, 5rebs, 1ast, 1blk.

3. WAYNE BRINGS THE PAIN

ROS’s record with Wayne Chism climbed to 4-1 after they disposed of BLA in their previous game. Chism was outplayed a little bit by Marcus Douthit in that game, but the Tennessee product still put up great numbers. As long as he remains solid and produces from both ends of the floor, ROS should have a good chance of winning.

Comm Cup stats: 33.5ppg, 15.5rpg, 2.3apg, 1.3spg, 2.5 triples per game, 46.9 FG%

vs BLA: 30pts, 14rebs, 4asts, 1stl, 3 triples, 12/21 FGs (57.1%).

4. QUICK HITTERS

Another contributing factor for ROS’s latest win was transition offense. ROS forced 16 BLA turnovers and turned these into 14 points. In all, the Painters recorded 26 fastbreak points compared to just 10 for BLA. This is significant because ROS is not one of the best transition teams in the league. If the Aces can also use the fastbreak as a weapon against Kia, though, then they should be in great shape.

Fastbreak pts: ROS 26, BLA 10

ROS average Fastbreak pts (first 9 games): 10.7ppg

vs BLA: 26pts

5. BIGONG GIGANTE

Without a doubt, PJ Ramos has been the biggest difference-maker for Kia this conference. The 7’3 giant is among the import leaders in scoring, FG%, and rebounds. He is, however, also the most turnover-prone, coughing up close to 5 turnovers per contest. He will surely remain the focal point of Kia’s offense in this game, but can he carry them on his broad shoulders even more than he already has?

Comm Cup stats: 35.0ppg, 21.2rpg, 2.9apg, 1.3bpg, 53.5 FG%

6. WHO WILL STEP UP?

In Kia’s previous game, no local player was able to score more than 8 points. Without the numbers of Ramos, Kia shot just 34.0% from the field. Reil Cervantes scored the most with 8 points, while erstwhile reliables like LA Revilla and Leo Avenido also struggled big time. Kia will need its locals to contribute if it wants to steal this game.

Kia locals: 16/47 FG shooting and 8/18 FT shooting

7. PROTECT THE BALL!

Another thing the Carnival will need to do to have a shot at beating ROS is they have to protect the basketball. Against NLX, Kia turned the ball over 17 times, which the Road Warriors promptly turned into 19 pts off TOs. Kia is 2nd to the last in turnovers per game, so this is really something they need to address in this bout.

Kia turnovers per game: 17.4 (11th in the league)

vs NLX: 17 — turned into 19 pts off TOs

8. MARQUEE MATCH-UP: GABE NORWOOD VS REIL CERVANTES

Both Norwood and Cervantes have been a little underwhelming so far this conference. Norwood has scored in double-figures just once so far this conference, often choosing to defer to some of his younger teammates. Cervantes, meanwhile, has been relegated to maybe Kia’s third or even fourth scoring option despite the fact he was their most productive player in the Phil. Cup. This should be an interesting match-up as both players are tough, both can shoot from long range, and both will really die for those loose balls.

Norwood season stats: 7.3ppg, 5.9rpg, 3.1apg, 1.1spg, 37.9 FG%

Cervantes season stats: 14.0ppg, 5.0rpg, 1.4apg, 37.3 FG%

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