NO STOPPING SAN MIGUEL BEER NOW?
Blackwater and Typhoon Ruby will try
Stalled five days ago in its bid for an outright semifinal seat in the PBA Philippine Cup, San Miguel Beer gets another crack Tuesday at bypassing the quarterfinal playoffs.
A formidable force stands in the way though.
Talk ‘N Text put them on hold first. This time, it isn’t just their opponents at the close of eliminations that the Beermen may have to worry about.
Unless Typhoon Ruby veers a little off course or subsides in its intensity so as not to cause postponement of the 4:15 p.m. game at the Cuneta Astrodome, heavy rains and strong winds may yet accomplish what the Blackwater Elite could be hard-pressed to do: Stop San Miguel’s advance.
The Tropang Texters beat the Beermen, 107-101, on Dec. 5, denying SMB’s initial attempt at reaching the Final Four.
With Rain or Shine whipping up a storm Sunday, claiming the first of two automatic Final Four slots by weathering a late surge by Barangay Ginebra San Miguel, 100-90, SMB goes for the clinching 9th win against a winless rival determined nonetheless to drag someone down with it.
Still, while an upset isn’t discounted, the realities disagree somewhat with the probabilities.
From its long history of winning, its maturity and experience to June Mar Fajardo, San Miguel offers varied matchup problems that could be too many and too complex for the young Elite to solve.
Blackwater could choose to grind down the pace to a crawl, taking full advantage of the shotclock to set up the best possible offensive option while lessening its turnover ratio. But even that would be negated if SMB applies heavy full-court pressure on the Elite point guards, dragging them out of the comfort of their half-court game and quickening the pace to the Beermen’s taste.
Then there’s the big question on Blackwater’s defensive capability.
Who’s going to take on Fajardo one-on-one to avoid leaving one SMB shooter open? Blackwater has the choice to throw a tight zone and clamp down on the hulking 6-foot-10 center while taking its chances against the Beermen gunners, hoping Arwind Santos, Chris Lutz and Jeric Fortuna would come up with bricks.
Regardless, however, Fajardo may be too big and strong and too agile to contain for 48 minutes and is likely to break out of any double-teaming wall built around him, wreaking havoc inside as soon as he does so.
Halting SMB’s transition game, fueled by Fortuna, Sol Mercado and Chris Ross, is another hellish dilemma for Blackwater which could find itself fouling in desperation or stepping aside in hapless capitulation.
Veterans Eddie Laure and Paul Artadi could keep things brewing if their shots fall early, and frontliners Bryan Faundo, Jason Ballesteros, Ogie Menor and Alex Nuyles won’t shy away from the banging as the Elite search for their first win of the season on their last game of the conference.
It would be up then to the Beermen to assert themselves or risk falling victim to Blackwater. If that happens, resulting in a 3-way tie among SMB, Talk ‘N Text and Alaska, the Aces will make it to the semis outright, having beaten both teams in the elimination round.
Unless the rains wash out Tuesday’s schedule or Blackwater shocks SMB, the two-phase quarterfinals kick off on Thursday, with the twice-to-beat 3rd to 6th-placed teams facing the twice-to-win 7th- to 10-ranked teams in matchup pairings The four emerging teams then go into the crossover knockout phase to choose the two other semifinalists.
As things stand, assuming SMB (8-2) makes it as an outright semis qualifier and no unseen complication arises, No. 3 Alaska (8-3) will face No. 10 NLEX (4-7) in the playoffs, No. 4 Talk ‘N Text (8-3) will take on either Meralco (5-5), Globalport (5-5), Purefoods (5-5) or Barako Bull (4-6), No. 5 Barangay Ginebra (6-5) will be up against anyone from the Bolts, Batang Pier, Hotshots and Energy, while the No. 6 slot remains up for grabs.
Ginebra could wind up as the No. 6 team, however, if Meralco prevails over Globalport and Barako Bull beats Purefoods. The Bolts defeated the Kings, 109-99, in the elims. If GlobalPort wins, the Batang Pier, who routed the Kings, 98-77, will secure the No. 5 slot regardless if the Hotshots beat the Energy. (WJRHT)
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