#PBA2015 PREVIEW: KIA CARNIVAL vs BLACKWATER ELITE – THE BIG, THE BAD, AND THE BULLIED

These two expansion teams have been on contrasting trajectories so far this season. They both struggled big time in the first conference, but now Kia and Blackwater are headed in opposite directions.

Kia has been on the rise, riding on the backs of gigantic center PJ Ramos. It seems that winning feeling has rubbed off on the locals, too, as they’ve been able to step up big time.

Blackwater, on the other hand, despite getting its first win in franchise history, has been on a bit of a tailspin. They haven’t been able to win any other game after that, and it doesn’t look like anyone on their roster has any promise of really stepping up.

Here are a few things to watch in this game:

1. CAN KUYA TAKE THE MASTODON?

The marquee match-up here, of course, will be between Kuya Marcus Douthit and the Mastodon himself, PJ Ramos. Their numbers are quite different — Douthit is last among all imports in scoring, while Ramos is #2. Douthit is also dead last in FG%, while Ramos is, again, at #2. It’ll be an extremely difficult task, but for Blackwater to have any chance here, Kuya Marcus has to slow down the Mastodon.

Ramos stats: 32.0ppg, 20.3rpg, 3.0apg, 1.0bpg, 53.3 FG%

Douthit stats: 19.0ppg, 13.7rpg, 3.0apg, 1.5spg, 2.5bpg, 34.5 FG%

2. HYRAM HEATS UP

What a time for Hyram Bagatsing to explode! Prior to the game against TNT, Bagatsing had scored just 2 points and played just 15 minutes the entire conference. Against the Texters, however, the former Green Archer popped the cap by draining 6 three-pointers on his way to 21 points. If he can be reasonably reliable in future games, Kia should be a tough nut to crack.

Comm Cup stats: 7.7ppg, 1.0rpg, 66.7 3pt%, 63.6 FG%

vs TNT: 21pts, 6/7 3pt shooting

3. NEW LEASE ON LIFE

One guy who has enjoyed his new lease on life has been Leo Avenido. Avenido, who seemed to be a forgotten player in the PBA, has come back strong. Avenido has, in fact, blossomed into the team’s second leading scorer. He has averaged 2.5 triples in every game so far this conference, and, by all indications, it seems like he has really found a new home in Kia.

Comm Cup stats: 10.0ppg, 2.0rpg, 1.8apg, 2.5 triples per game, 66.7 3pt%, 50.0 FG%

vs TNT: 16pts, 3rebs, 4asts, 4 triples, 57.1 FG%

4. LOCAL FLAVOR

Aside from Bagatsing and Avenido, Kia’s other locals stepped up, too. Reil Cervantes, JR Buensuceso, and Kyle Pascual each scored 10 points, while LA Revilla grabbed 8 rebounds, handed out 7 assists, and got 4 steals. If the Carnival’s locals can continue playing at this level, they should be a legitimate threat to make the quarterfinals and maybe even beyond.

Reil Cervantes – 10pts, 6rebs, 2asts

JR Buensuceso – 10pts, 3rebs, 7asts

Kyle Pascual – 10pts, 3rebs

LA Revilla – 5pts, 8rebs, 7asts, 4stls

5. TEAM PLAY

Aside from great shooting, another huge reason for Kia’s successful upset of TNT was awesome ball movement. Kia assisted on 33 of their 38 field goals. That’s good for a whipping 86.8% assist rate. That shows one thing — great teamwork. In contrast, they allowed TNT to only have 19 assists. If Kia can continue with a very high level of team play, Kia should be in great shape Saturday against Blackwater.

Assists before the TNT game: 16.3 per game

Assists vs TNT: 33

Ramos – 9asts

Buensuceso – 7asts

Revilla – 7asts

Avenido – 4asts

6. CAN’T FIND THE MARK

As for Blackwater, the Elite just really couldn’t find the mark against GIN. They shot under 38% from the floor. Even top guns like Marcus Douthit and Brian Heruela couldn’t consistently find the mark. In contrast, they let TNT shoot 43.5% from the field. Against a potentially hot-shooting team like Kia, it goes without saying that Blackwater needs to hit the mark for a shot at winning.

Vs GIN: 37.3 FG%

Douthit – 30.0%

Heruela – 37.5%

Celiz – 30.0%

Salvacion – 37.5%

7. CAN’T CLEAN GLASS

Another big factor that contributed to BLA’s defeat was rebounding, or lack thereof. The Elite were -12 in rebounding and couldn’t really keep the Gin Kings off the glass. Nobody outside of Douthit grabbed more than 4 rebounds for BLA, while four Gin Kings grabbed 5 or more boards. Against a team with 7-3 Ramos in the middle, BLA must control the glass.

Rebounding last game: GIN 52, BLA 40

GIN rebounders:

Dunigan – 16rebs

Slaughter – 14rebs

Caguioa – 7rebs

Baracael – 5rebs

8. BATTING FOR THE PLAYOFFS

As great as Kia has been this conference, they’re not yet a sure thing for the next round. Kia still needs a couple of wins to really ensure a slot in the quarterfinals, and they cannot afford a loss to a team like Blackwater. A win here should move Kia right into the middle of the pack and should put a lot of pressure on teams like Alaska, NLEX, and San Miguel.

Next opponents:

Alaska – Mar. 3

NLEX – Mar. 18

ROS – Mar. 22

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