X-factor in San Miguel, Rain or Shine series
San Miguel Beer’s success this conference has been largely attributed to its reigning MVP June Mar Fajardo and import Arizona Reid.
Aside from the fact that the offense runs through them more often than not, Fajardo and Reid average combined accounts for nearly half of the Beermen’s total points and about two thirds of their team’s rebounds
San Miguel Beer won eight of its 11 games in the elimination round relying heavily on Fajardo and Reid but that has to change in its best-of-five semifinals series against Rain or Shine starting on Thursday.
‘Can’t be all June Mar’
Meralco Bolts assistant coach Luigi Trillo believes that the Beermen will need to get more from the rest of their players in order to beat the Elasto Painters.
San Miguel Beer won, 104-91, in its only meeting with Rain or Shine in the eliminations in a game where Fajardo and Reid combined for more than half of their team’s scoring output with 58 and half of its rebounds with 29.
“Guys have to step up. It can’t be all June Mar,” Trillo said shortly after the Beernen eliminated the Bolts. “I don’t think you’re gonna see San Miguel winning it with simply Reid and Fajardo alone.”
“They have to have weapons out and I think that’s their strength – how they can get Ross some easy ones underneath, how Cabagnot can be efficient coming off the ball screens and aside from Marcio, can Lutz and Tubid knocking down the shots,” Trillo added. “Remember those two have been consistent when they won a championship. Lutz was knocking down shots against Alaska. But right now, those two are question marks.”
Rain or Shine’s deep rotation
One of the main reasons why Trillo thinks other players should step up and make their presence felt for the Beermen is the Painters’ deep rotation. He also feels Rain or Shine has the personnel to at least limit Fajardo and at the same time guard the perimeter coming off double teams.
“They have certain guys who can send out on June Mar and I think they have the depth to defend the perimeter after they double on June Mar. They can do so many things defensively,” he pointed out.
“You face a shallow or a team that’s a bit older like us and you defend, you’re good at some point but eventually you wear down. And remember this is five games and Rain or Shine again has the depth to defend San Miguel. Not taking anything away from San Miguel Beer, they’ve been there but I like Rain or Shine’s depth in terms of sending certain guys to June Mar, defending Reid and as the series wears down, I think Rain or Shine’s game will come to the fore,” he said.
Cabagnot’s as X-factor
Trillo thinks the X-Factor of the series is going to be San Miguel’s veteran guard Alex Cabagnot.
Cabagnot had his moments in the elimination round but overall, it was still an up-and-down conference for him so far. He averaged 9.8 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists in the eliminations but struggled in the quarterfinals norming 2 points per game on 2-of-19 shooting from the field.
“Cabagnot’s gotta play. It just can’t be Ross. Cabagnot’s gotta play really well,” said Trillo, who singled out swingman Ronald Tubid as the game-changer for the Beermen vs the Bolts. “Alex has to play if they’re going to neutralize the transition of Rain or Shine. If they can control the tempo and really get into the halfcourt and their shots start falling, that’s big.”
San Miguel’s weakness
Fajardo could be on his way to another MVP season but it doesn’t mean that he’s good at everything he does on the court.
“The weakness of San Miguel Beer is June Mar defending ball screens and Rain or Shine runs a ton of ball screens staggered, handoff, that’s their strength. So it’s gonna be interesting how they hide June Mar defensively.”
Rain or Shine in four or five games
With everything considered into play, Trillo is giving Rain or Shine the ‘slight edge’ in the series.
“Tough to say but I think Rain or Shine is in a better flow. Rain or Shine seems to be peaking at the right time,” he said. “I would say Rain or Shine has the slight edge. Simply because of their depth and they have certain tools to neutralize San Miguel Beer.”
“I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends in four or five but I would still go with Rain or Shine just my gut feel, they’re playing well, they know how to get into June Mar’s head. They (Rain or Shine) have the pieces. I think talent-wise the first five of San Miguel Beer is there but I think us stretching these guys to one more game could take its toll.”
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